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If it seems that America has never seen an election like this before, you’re not alone. It’s safe to say that the American public, as a whole, is ambivalent about Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.
Source: Gallup
A recent Gallup poll found that the primary reason for either candidate’s support was aversion to the other candidate.
Trump_Clinton_chartbuilder
Source: Gallup
Moreover, Gallup found both candidates have negative net favorability ratings (the net percentage of people who view the individual as favorable over not). Why? Partly due to the negative tone of the campaign. Negative ads are a staple of political contests, but this cycle has been worse than any in recent history.
Source: Pew Research
In a recent study by Pew Research, 57% of people mentioned feeling “frustrated” about the 2016 campaign, followed by feelings of “disgust,” at 55%. Only 15% said they were “optimistic.” The same poll also found negative campaigning was only part of the problem—this election also features two very weak candidates.
Source: Pew Research
For Donald Trump, it’s relatively easy to diagnose his problem: his personality. Among those who expressed concerns with him, more than 33% mentioned that “temperament” was a big concern, which is consistent with the complaints of many media pundits.
Source: Pew Research
For Hillary Clinton, the diagnosis is much more difficult. While many view the former Secretary of State as “dishonest” or disapprove of her past associations, the prime reason people don’t approve of Clinton is unknown; people just don’t seem to like her.
Source: The Economist/YouGov Poll (pg. 8)
This is especially true among Bernie Sanders’ supporters. Recent evidence suggests, despite Sanders’ efforts to garner support for his former rival, more than 55% view Clinton negatively. Although it may not matter, given Trump’s spate of gaffes tainting his standing with voters, the stat should worry Clinton.
Source: The Economist/YouGov Poll (pg. 12)
Sanders’ supporters represent an extremely important demographic for Clinton to shore up in advance of the election if she wants to guarantee a win. Thus far, among Sanders’ supporters, only 55% are planning to vote for Clinton in November. Nearly 12% plan to vote for Trump.
Source: YouGov Presidential Tracking Polls: July 15-October 3
How can Clinton win over these Sanders supporters? Partly, by doing what Clinton’s been doing already. Her un-favorability was 68% in mid-July among Sanders’ supporters, likely due to her campaign’s bitter nature. Slowly she has dwindled those numbers down over time as voters become less upset by their primary defeat.
Her tone of inclusion and her performance at the Democratic Convention in Philadelphia also helped her campaign boost support among Sanders’ base. But it’s hard to argue that bitterness is the only driver. Much of the discontent is likely because Clinton is perceived as being against some of the key issues that Sanders’ supporters care about. The Vermont Senator’s support came primarily from young, disenfranchised voters who consider themselves Democratic-leaning or independent. Clinton has some real policy shifts to emphasize if she’s going to fully win over this segment of the population.
In particular, she must emphasize her willingness to fight for perceived injustices—economic or social— to ingratiate herself with Bernie’s supporters. Moreover, Clinton must also de-emphasize her ties with “establishment” forces, such as banks or political institutions. Although it would be unwise to completely alienate her base, Clinton must walk the tightrope between appeasing and adopting Bernie Sanders’ outsider views and maintaining some of her own if she wants a strong showing—and a united base—next month.
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